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LG Adams Sunday 11th February at 6:49pm

Hi All, I operate out of South Africa- using the Non De Plume LG Adams - since for various reasons i cannot have my associates establish that I am an avid follower of horse racing. Mostly people associate horse players with addiction, gambling and drinking - few can comprehend a 6 to 7 hour session of studying form, using computer spreadsheets, and formulas for the purpose. I guess most people are just too closed minded.

While they hack away at the forex markets and stock exchanges, as if that is any less risky.

So my principle belief is that "the fastest horse will always win" - Taking into account that many horses have not yet exposed their true speed potential, and many horses are not being sent out on any particular day to blast away a top performance. These truths lead to my second belief - "Horses must show intent" to win.

I have spent around 40 years, from the time of commodore 64 computers, DOS and windows 3.1 studying and assessing horse racing form.

What I have learned over the years is that things change, the markets adapt to what's common - nothing really works forever. The most certain loser in a horse race is usually the one that looks the most obvious winner on form.

What doesn't change however is that people train and race horses to make money, and they want to make as much money as they can. Thus the core of my study is focussed around identifying "winning intent" - once I have identified a horse that has either shown speed ability, or hints at speed ability.

So I am open to all discussions around this area of "winning intent".

Ultimately the trainer has to turn a profit with a horse - either through stakes or wagers.

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Equinas Monday 11th June at 7:40am

The 'Boks are back! Good ol' Rassie. Yes, racing is full of false favourites. I often wonder if they are deliberately created by the bookies and tipsters, so they can clean up. I look for the comment "fought hard to the line" last start. I use a system of "progressing numbers" to see if the favourite will be beaten, and when roughies will strike. Works very well.

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LG Adams Sunday 27th January at 8:32pm

imo , Horses cannot win every and anytime they run, they thus have to be targeted at a race where the probability of winning at the best possible stake return is realistic. Punters tend to latch on to these performances after the horse leaves the targeted race behind, and this becomes the natural favourite for the masses. The horse usually (70%) of the time fails to deliver. The missing ingredient was intent

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