Breeders’ Plate fancy could be vulnerable

The first of Sydney’s new season babies step out at Randwick on Saturday and although it is a day of anticipation, it is also one that presents a conundrum for punters.

A field of 12 fillies will contest the Gimcrack Stakes (1000m), while 14 colts tackle the Breeders’ Plate (1000m), all heading to the races for the first time and all off a single barrier trial.

Racing And Sports’ form expert Simon Dinopoulos says the juvenile features are especially complex this year given the official two-year-old trials were held over slightly varied distances of 843m, 845m and 850m.

“It’s minimal, but it’s something to keep in mind because usually you can just compare times,” Dinopoulos said.

So what does a form expert look for when, well, there isn’t any form?

Dinopoulos explains that he deconstructs the heats by subtracting the 600m sectional time from the overall heat time to assess what happens at either end.

He also relies on a little subjectivity by trusting his eye, and he says it is no coincidence the same trainers routinely do well in these races.

“A lot of the early two-year-old races are won by the same stables each year and that’s what the market gravitates to,” he said.

“It’s interesting because the market doesn’t have a lot to work with, so sometimes they can also be races they make mistakes on.”

Dinopoulos feels that could be the case with the Breeders’ Plate for which the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained Scampi is odds-on.

While ultra-impressed by his trial, he feels the colts’ division will be run at a hectic tempo and that could leave the top fancy vulnerable.

“Scampi looked fantastic in the trial, but at the same time there was no pressure at all and he was allowed to coast,” Dinopoulos said.

“On Saturday, it’s a completely different scenario where you’ve got Gai’s horses in there that are going to eyeball him.

“His mum (Sistonic) was an absolute rocket and Blue Point is the leading first season sire in Europe so no surprise he looks the goods, but I wouldn’t be rushing in to takes odds-on.”

So has Dinopoulos found a Breeders’ Plate smokey?

“It looks like it’s going to be survival of the fittest, who is strongest late, so I wouldn’t be surprised if a horse like Volatile steps up, and Counterpart was sneaky in the trials,” he said.

Tulloch Lodge filly Lady Camelot is a $2.60 favourite for the Gimcrack after winning her 850m heat by almost four lengths and Dinopoulos can’t see too many chinks in her armour.

“(Her dam) Miss Debutante has had two foals to the races, Queen Of The Ball who ran second at her first start in 2021, and she is also a half to Platinum Jubilee, who won this race last year,” Dinopoulos said.

“She is bred to win it and I really liked her trial. She looks to have a serious engine.”

Dinopoulos has one final piece of advice for punters – don’t bet early.

He says it doesn’t take much for an immature, inexperienced two-year-old to be overawed by their first race day.

“Probably more important than anything is how they parade on the day,” he said.

“There will be a big crowd, they’re not the first race so there’s more chance for the crowd to pour in.

“You want to see them parade well and in terms of getting set early, they might run their race in the parade and then you’ve already done your money.”