2025 Melbourne Cup contenders emerge at Royal Ascot

Royal Ascot has long served as a barometer for Melbourne Cup success, with trainers often using the UK carnival as a launch pad to Flemington in November. This year, the performances of Ethical Diamond and Sober have brought that tradition back into focus.

Willie Mullins, who famously came within a whisker of Cup glory with Max Dynamite in 2015, now has two more prospects in Ethical Diamond and Sober, both of whom were impressive at Ascot.

Ethical Diamond, a five-year-old gelding, secured a win in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap (2414m) and registered a Racing And Sports rating of 110—equalling standout performances in recent renewals.

Sober, by Camelot, proved a class above in the Queen Alexandra Stakes (4355m), winning by five lengths and adding to a strong flat career that includes the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier and Prix Kergorlay. His peak rating of 118 puts him in the same league as some of the best European imports.

According to Victoria Racing Club’s Leigh Jordan, Mullins is eager to bring the pair Down Under, pending ballot eligibility and weight considerations.

“Ethical Diamond and Sober are both likely (chances),” Jordan said.

“Obviously with Willie, I’ve been sort of ‘what’s happening’ and he’s been giving me the thumbs up that that’s the way he wants to go.

“He’s still got a few things to do. Ethical Diamond’s not passed the ballot yet and probably wouldn’t have enough weight.

“Sober, he won at Kergorlay a couple of years ago, I don’t know whether he’s passed the ballot actually, the race he won won’t do that.

“He knows the drill about getting there. Willie’s got plenty of ammo, he’s got Absurde as well who in the same ownership as Ethical Diamond.”

Another to watch is French Master, trained by John & Thady Gosden. The son of Frankel won the Copper Horse Handicap (2816m) at Ascot—matching the race won by Vauban in 2022—with a peak rating of 113.

Gosden’s Melbourne Cup record is limited, but with strong ties to Wathnan Racing and global ambitions, French Master could be a legitimate threat if he qualifies.

“French Master, the Wathnan (owned) horse, our track manager Liam O’Keefe is over there, he’s done a bit with Qatar and touched base with them.

“He also needs to get past the ballot and look at his rating, there’s probably still a bit more work to be done with him.

“I always think Ascot’s a bit of a fork in the road, and then really from there, trainers will start thinking about their summer period, second half of the season.

“Ascot, very much, is like a premiership for most trainers. So it’s probably from now on where you’re going to get a bit more of a guide on who’s a chance.”

In early Melbourne Cup markets, Sober is priced at $15 and Ethical Diamond at $18.

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